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MIIT: construction materials industry shows the trend of stability and recovery

点击量:16159 公布工夫:2013/3/11 12:16:48

Bureau of Operation Monitoring and Coordination, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology
Institute of Industrial Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (December 28, 2012)
Since this year, in front of the complicated and changeable situation at home and abroad, all regions and departments have been working on the stable growth, structure adjustment and the promotion of transition according to the spirit “seek improvement in stability” required by the central government, accelerating the implementation of related policies, reducing the impact of external demand shrinkage and economic downturn, making sure the overall operation of industrial economy develops from moderation to stabilization and restoration, and steadily promoting the adjustment of industrial structure.

I. Basic conditions of industrial economy operation in 2012

According to the data from the State Statistics Bureau, the added value in above-scale industry increased by 10% between January and November this year, 11.6% in the first quarter, 9.5% the second, 9.1% the third, and nearly 10% the last; 10.2% in light industry, and 9.8% in heavy industry if divided into the two industries. It is estimated that the added value of above-scale industry all through the year increases by 10% around.

The economic operation in 2012 has the following characters:

Industrial economy operation slow and stable. In spite of the slow trend of industrial growth quarter by quarter beginning from the second half of last year, more positive changes are seen with the stable growth policy issued by the central government taking effect; industrial growth restores month by month, and a stable trend is increasingly obvious. In August, after the monthly growth of industrial added value declined to 8.9%, the lowest point of 2010, it rose to 9.2%, 9.6% and 10.1% respectively in September, October and November. The month-on-month growth of the added value of above-scale industry accelerated monthly after July, increasing by 0.76%, 0.84, 0.83% and 0.86% respectively in August, September, October and November month on month; industrial economy restored at a stable rate.

Obviously increased effect of domestic demand. Since this year, the world economy restored slowly. The continuous shrinkage of external demand resulted in a large decline in the growth of export of our industrial products. According to the data from the State Statistics Bureau, the export delivery value achieved by above-scale industry only increased by 6.8% year on year between January and November, falling by 10.5 percentage points, with 7.4%, 6.8% and 3.5% respectively in the first, second and third quarter, 5.4% and 12.2% in October and November. The overall growth showed a slow trend quarter by quarter. The restoration of growth in November was mainly driven by the low base in the same period of last year. The growth of domestic demand showed a stable trend under the situation of continuous shrinkage of external demand, showing an increasing effect in driving industrial growth. The investment in urban fixed assets and the gross retail sales of consumer goods increased by 20.7% and 14.2% respectively year on year between January and November (actual growth of 12% after deduction of price factor). Despite the impact of low growth of export, the year-on-year sales value achieved by above-scale industry still maintained a growth rate of 12.5%.

Stable promotion of industrial structure adjustment the added value of high-tech industry increased by 11.8% between January and November, 1.8 percentage points higher than the average of above-scale industry; planning about new information technology, high-end equipment manufacturing, new materials, energy saving and new-energy vehicle were implemented; merger and reorganization of key industries achieved progress. Most of the outdated production lines owned by the 2,761 enterprises that were among the left-behind productivity list were already closed to ensure the orderly advancement of industry; The situation of industrial energy saving and emission reduction turned for the better, with larger decline of the energy consumption of industrial added value in above-scale enterprises than the expected goal.

Better business operation According to the data from the State Statistics Bureau, the above-scale industrial enterprises achieved a profit of 402 million yuan after breakeven between January and October, an increase of 0.5% year on year, realizing positive growth for the first time within the year, with 8.5% of tax increase year on year, profit margin of principal business revenue of 5.46%, a decline of 0.53 percentage points year on year, yet 0.1 percentage points higher than the first three quarters; the average number of employed persons amounted to 90.17 million, an increase of 1% year on year.

Positive operation in eastern regions, increased effect of driving in central and western regions The industrial added value in eastern, western and middle regions increased by 8.7%, 11.4% and 12.8% year on year between January and November, with average growth in industrial added value in eastern, western and middle regions of 8.7%, 10.8% and 13% respectively in October and November, 0.5, 1.2 and 1.3 percentage points higher than the first three quarters. The proportion of the added value in eastern and western regions increased to 25.2% and 18.2% respectively. The profit achieved by the above-scale industrial enterprises in eastern and middle regions increased by 0.8% and 0.2% between January and October, compared with the reduction of 1.5% and 1.3% in the first three quarters; there was a drop of 0.3% in western regions, 3.6 percentage points lower than the first three quarters.

Gradual effect of stable growth policy Industrial electricity consumption regained growth. According to the statistics from China Electricity Council, industrial electricity consumption increased by 3.4% year on year between January and November, monthly growth only increasing by 0.9% year on year compared with September, rising to 5.9% and 7% in October and November. The household appliance market was good. There were 74.93 million household appliances sold to countryside across the nation (not including Shandong, Henan, Sichuan and Qingdao) between January and November, achieving a sales volume of 201 billion yuan, increasing by 22.2% and 18.1% year on year. Some leading indicators showed positive changes. According to the survey conducted by the State Statistics Bureau and China Federation of Logistics Purchasing (CFLP), the Purchasing Managers Index in manufacturing began to rise for three consecutive months since September after its decline in four consecutive months, reaching 50.6% in November, with new order index of itemized indicators rising to 51.2%, exceeding the critical point for two consecutive months. The continuous improvement of leading indicators implied that the manufacturing is in a process of stable restoration.

In general, the overall situation of our economic development is positive. In front of the complicated and severe international situation and continuous shrinkage of external demand, the implementation of positive fiscal policy and stable monetary policy, combined with the enhancement of the strength in regulation have realized a slow and stable economic operation. That is a proud achievement compared with the lack of growth of developed economic entity and the obvious slowdown of emerging economic entity. Meanwhile, we should realize there are still many difficulties confronting economic development, The foundation of stabilization is not solid, and there are still a lot of difficulties and challenges before we realize the stable growth of industry. I. It's hard to overcome influence of the shrinkage of external demand in a short time, and the export of industrial products is facing severe challenge. The total volume of our foreign trade only increased 1% and 2.7% year on year in July and August. The growth rose to 9.9% and 11.6% in September and October, but declined again to 2.9% in November. Some labor intensive industries and orders show a tendency of transferring to neighboring countries. Some industries engaged in export of high-end products are suffering from the suppression from developed countries. The difficulty in keeping stable growth of export remains huge. II. The investment intensity in manufacturing declines due to economic downturn and the low profitability in enterprises. Because the overall growth of fixed assets investment rose, the growth of accumulated industrial investment declined for five consecutive months and the growth of manufacturing investment also dropped for four consecutive months. There was 13.9 trillion yuan of industrial investment (accounting for 42.7% in fixed assets investment) between January and November, increasing 21.1% year on year, 2.7 percentage points less than the first half year; there is 11.3 trillion yuan of manufacturing investment (accounting for 81.3% in industrial investment), increasing by 22.8% year on year, 2.1 percentage points less than the first seven months. III. Enterprises find difficulties in business operation. In recent time, although some indicators were improved, there is no obvious increase in market demand, production cost is still high, and enterprises are suffering from reduced profit and increased loss. The percentage of loss was 15% between January and October, 3 percentage points higher year on year; the amount of loss increased by 50.1% year on year, expenditure for per 100-yuan principal business revenue increasing 0.28 yuan year on year, financial cost increasing by 28.6% year on year, 18.3 percentage points higher than the revenue growth of principal business of the same period, turnover rate of current assets reducing by 0.1 time/year. IV. Some industries have excess productivity. "High productivity, high inventory, high cost, low demand, low price and low efficiency" is a problem that always hinders the development of industry. Currently, China has the capacity of making more than 900 million ton of steel, but the utilization rate of productivity is only 72%. The productivity for cement is nearly 3 billion ton, exceeding the expected goal of 2.5 billion ton by 2015. Due to the frustration in export, there are less than 10 out of the 50 polycrystalline silicon manufacturers that are doing business currently. The problem of excess productivity already results in the decline of price in these industries and leads to the deterioration of the whole operation.

II. Situation of industrial development in 2013

Our economic development next year has many favorable conditions and positive factors The opening of the 18th CPC National Congress greatly encourages and intensifies the confidence and determination of Chinese people to construct the socialism with Chinese characteristics. The deeper promotion of industrialization, informatization, urbanization and agricultural modernization will provide larger market space for the expansion of domestic demand and the development of substantial economy. The acceleration of innovation, structural adjustment and the transition of development pattern will continuously reinforce the harmony and sustainability of economic development. The persistence in the promotion of reform and expansion of opening up will give a strong stimulation to the vitality and power of economic development. But we should also see that the economic situation abroad next year is still complicated and involved with many uncertain and unstable factors. Economy will undergo a transition from high-speed growth to moderate and stable growth, and is in a process of periodic adjustment. Huge efforts are required to keep the stable development of economy and the improvement of the quality and efficiency of industrial development.

The expansion of domestic demand, especially the demand for consumption, is the solid foundation to keep continuous and healthy development of economy. The actual growth of the gross retail sales (excluding price factor) of consumer goods was 0.8 and 0.4 percentage points higher than the first half year and the first three quarters between January and November; the actual growth in November was 13.6%, an increase of more than 12% for six consecutive months. In the first three quarters, the contribution rate made by domestic demand to economic growth was 105.5%, with the demand for consumption of 55%, the first time for it to produce larger driving power to economic growth than investment did since 2006. The fast increase of income level of residents, positive situation in employment market and the introduction of the program for income distribution reform will lay a solid foundation for the continuous growth of household consumption. In the first three quarters, the actual growth of per capita disposable income of urban residents was 9.8%, and the actual growth of per capita cash income of agricultural residents was 12.3%, both obviously higher than the growth of GDP in the first three quarters. There are 18 provinces and cities across the country that have increased the minimum wage standard, rising by 19.4% on average. The sales of commercial building turn for the better, with less decline in sales area month by month, and achieved positive growth in November for the first time, which has increased by 2.4% between January and November. The positive sign showed in commercial building sales will promote the growth of retail sales of household appliances, furniture, construction and decoration. The further implementation of a series consumption-driving policies and measures for energy saving products and new-energy vehicle will also stimulate the consumption demand of household. However, it is hard to completely eliminate these institutional factors and structural problems which restrict the household consumption expenditure in a short time; the program for income distribution reform would take time before it is carried out, and the expansion of consumption capacity needs a process. It is required to cultivate new consumption trend, especially some fast-growing and potential hot spots like information consumption. It is also important to strengthen policy support and guidance to accelerate the expansion of consumption capacity.

Keep the stable growth of investment is the key power for driving economic increase. The growth of the total accumulated investment in new projects in the investment scale of fixed assets of the whole society reached 28.8% between January and November, and showed the sign of increase for seven consecutive months, implying a continuous enhancement of the power of investment increase in future. 2013 is an important year for the implementation of the 12th Five-Year Plan. Under the guidance of the stable growth policy, we'll start and follow a number of major projects, and we'll continue to see the role played by investment in driving industrial growth. But we also should understand that in spite of continuous implementation of real estate regulation policy, the investment in real estate still lack of power for restoration. Restricted by the frustration of low export and excess productivity in some fields, manufacturing investment lacks of power for fast restoration. Judging in microscopic view, with the combined impact of low market demand and increasing comprehensive cost, enterprise's profitability declines sharply, and some industries even suffer from great loss. Enterprise's investment ability drop, and the intension for private capital invested in substantial economy is not strong. From a comprehensive view, investment next year is expected to basically realize a stable growth on the basis of the low growth this year. To take the full advantage of the role of investment in driving economic increase, we need to choose the right direction, optimize structure and improve the quality and efficiency on one hand, and on the other further increase and guide private capital.

The prospect of external demand increase is still an uncertain factor which affects the stable operation of economy in a certain time in future. The recovery of world economy will be long and difficult process, and the profound influence of international financial crisis still remains. So, the 2013's world economy recovery is still fragile. In recent time, the world economic situation turns for the better under the stimulation of the new monetary policy implemented by different countries. The global manufacturing Purchase Management Index of JP Morgan rose from 48.8% in October to 49.7% in November, the highest record since June this year. But in a general view, with the continuous economic downturn in EU and Japan, slowdown of the growth of emerging economic entities, continuous increase of global economic financial crisis and the constant hindrance of trade protectionism, it is impossible for the world economy to recover without pains. In October, IMF reduced the global economic growth rate from 3.9%, anticipated in July, to 3.6%, and warned that global economy was facing the risk of another recession. In addition, judging from the situation of China's foreign trade, the competitive advantage of traditional industrial products is weakening gradually. In recent years, the employment cost in China is increasing rapidly. From 2006 to 2011, the nominal salary of urban employees in China's manufacturing doubled on average, with annual growth rate up to 15% on average. Compared with the countries in Southeast Asia, China is undergoing a change from low labor cost ten years ago to high cost at present. Recently, some labor intensive industries are showing a trend of transferring to neighboring countries. The number of oversea procurers and people participating the112th Canton Fair held in October and transaction volume reduced by 10.3% and 9.3% respectively compared with the last fair, indicating that China will still face severe situation of export for a period of time in future.

In general, the prospect for China’s industrial economy is basically positive and has large space and potential for development. But the economic situation at home and abroad is still complicated with increasing uncertain and unstable factors. With the combined influence of continuous shrinkage of external demand and slowdown of domestic demand, the contradictive interaction of insufficient effective demand and excess productivity and the co-existence of long-term problems and short-term difficulties, the situation is not optimistic.

III. Operation and development of major industries

Under the positive influence of a series of policies including the "stable growth", the growth of raw materials industry production rallies, the operation of consumer goods becomes slow and stable, electronics manufacturing shows obvious stability, and equipment manufacturing industry has not been released from the downward pressure due to its long circle of production and difficulty in improving. Judging from the overall situation of all industries, there are more positive changes since the third quarter, and the growths of some main indicators of economic operation show different degree of restoration. If the current situation continues to exist, it is estimated that the operation of most industries will be improved to varying degrees in 2013.

Raw materials industry Since this year, under the influence of regulation of real estate market and slowdown of infrastructure investment, the growth of raw materials industry continues the falling tendency which began early from the four quarter of last year; the growth of raw materials industry slowed down at the first half year. But with the implementation of policies including stable growth and domestic demand expansion since the second quarter, infrastructure investment continues to increase. Recently, the price of some raw materials keeps going up, and raw materials industrial production shows a trend of stability and restoration. According to the data from State Statistics Bureau, the added value completed by raw materials industry increased by 10.4% year on year between January and November, 2.3 percentage points lower than the same period of last year, 11.3%, 9.5% and 10.2% in the first, second and third quarter, and 11.4% on average in October and November, a trend of stability and restoration. It is estimated that the growth for the whole year would be about 10.5%. The next year is important for the implementation of the 12th Five-Year Plan. Investment in infrastructure including railway, road and water conservancy is expected to realize fast growth, but the expansion of investment is also restricted to some extents by the obvious slowdown of fiscal revenue this year and debts of local government. Real estate regulation and the reduction of projects of indemnificatory housing limit the degree of restoration of investment increase in real estate. Investment demand of the main downstream industry of raw materials is hard to improve substantially, while some industries engaged in steel, cement and plate glass will still face the big pressure of excess productivity. Meanwhile, pressure from resources and environment restriction and energy saving and emission reduction will increase for some high energy consumption and high emission raw materials industries, and the price fluctuation of bulk commodity resulting from the complicated international situation will impact the operation of raw materials industry who has high dependency on imported resources. Based on above analysis, it is estimated the growth of raw materials industry next year will probably be equivalent to that of this year.

Restricted by the insufficient effective demand, and excess productivity, steel industry will remain the low-growth, low-efficiency situation. Since this year, due to the downward economic situation at home and abroad, the demand for steel obviously slowed down, resulting in highlighted excess productivity, sharp fall of price and significant reduction of business performance. The operation of the industry is facing great difficulty. The national production of crude steel was 660 million ton between January and November, an increase of 2.9% year on year, 6.9 percentage points lower compared with the same period of last year. Due to the slack demand in domestic market, more than 6% of productivity depends on export to absorb. The domestic apparent consumption of crude steel was 620 million ton between January and November, an increase of 1.7% year on year, 8.5 percentage points lower compared with the same period of last year, and 1.2 percentage points lower than production growth; steel export was 54.13 million ton, an increase of 12.7% year on year; steel import was 13.74 million ton, a decline of 13.5%. After the import and export offset, the net export of crude steel was 40.38 million ton, accounting for 6.1% of the output of crude steel. Due to the weakness in domestic market, the growth of export relieves the pressure from excess productivity to some extents, but also causes some international trade frictions. The price of steel continues to go down. Influenced by the weak demand in market, centralized release of productivity and intensified competition of homogenized steel products, the price of steel keeps has been going down for five consecutive months since it hit the highest point in early April. According to the statistics from China Iron & Steel Association, the comprehensive index of domestic steel price exceeded 100 in the first and second week of September, and the price began to rebound in middle September; the index rose to 105.32 at the end of November, 17.01 points lower than the same period of last year, a decline of 13.91%. Profits go down drastically. According to the data from the State Statistics Bureau, the profits achieved by metallurgical industry dropped by 48.3% year on year between January and October (increasing by 28.4% in 2011); the profit margin of principal business revenue was 1.68%, 1.57 percentage points lower year on year. The profit margin of smelting and calendering process industry was only 0.99%, 1.5 percentage points lower year on year. The percentage of loss was 25.7%, and the amount of loss increased by 2.4 times year on year. According to the statistics from China Iron & Steel Association, member enterprises suffered a loss of 5.22 yuan after break-even between January and October. The whole industry is suffering from net loss. Excess productivity is hard to overcome. According to the statistics from China Iron & Steel Association, the national annual production of crude steel was 718 million ton in 2009, 800 million ton in 2010, 863 million ton in 2011, and expected to be 900 million ton or above in 2012. According to the data from the State Statistics Bureau, ferrous metal smelting and calendering process completed an investment of 450 billion yuan between January and November, which is expected to create more than 50 million ton of productivity. According to report of related media, there are more than 10 blast furnaces put into operation in Hebei Tangshan and Handan alone, with new productivity of more than 20 million ton. The absorbing ability of international market is limited. According to a recent prediction made by WSA, the worldwide steel consumption will increase by 2.1% and 3.2% respectively this year and next year, obvious lower than the 6.2% in 2011. Between January and October this year, except for a 0.5% reduction year on year in the production of worldwide crude steel outside China mainland, the difficulty in continuously expanding export will surely increase in front of the excess productivity existing across the world. It's difficult to bring significant improvement to the growth of domestic demand. Under the guidance of the "stable growth" policy, investment in infrastructure will increase, steel market, especially the demand for long log, is expected to restore, and the production and consumption will have a modest growth. Under the influence of low demand for steel in auto and shipbuilding industry, it is hard to bring significant improvement to the demand for slabs. Meanwhile, due to the big pressure from the increased price of raw materials like iron ore, intensified competition of product homogeneity and the seriousness of excess productivity, the situation of high cost, low growth and low profits in steel industry is expected to remain next year.

The nonferrous metal industry will show a stable trend for growth in production and improved performance, but the power for restoration is still not sufficient. The added value in nonferrous metal industry increased by 14% year on year between January and November, equivalent to that in the same period of last year. There were 33.84 million tons of ten kinds of nonferrous metals, an increase of 8.4% year on year, 1.9 percentage points lower than the same period of last year; the production of electrolytic copper and aluminium increased by 7.9% and 12.3% respectively. The status of profit and loss reduced substantially, and the whole aluminum smelting industry suffered from loss. The industry achieved a profit of 147.5 billion yuan between January and October, a decline of 16.2%, 3.4 percentage points lower than the first three quarters; the profit margin of principal business revenue was 3.98%, 1.39 percentage points lower year on year, among which the margin of smelting and calendering process accounted for 2.78%, 1.3 percentage points lower year on year, aluminum smelting (including aluminium oxide industry) suffered a loss of 1.35 billion yuan after break-even, with loss percentage of 19.2%, amount of loss increasing by 1.5 times year on year. The decline of profit is directly attributed to the reduction of price of nonferrous metal on the market at home and abroad, rise of price of electricity and energy and the large increase of financial expense including interests cost. The fundamental reasons for that are a number of structural problems such as the excess productivity of some products, low proportion of self-provided mining materials and energy and less possessions of products with competitive advantage and high additional value. Investment structure is improved. The investment in fixed assets achieved by nonferrous metal industry increased by 17.7% year on year between January and November, 14.8 percentage points lower year on year, among which investment in smelting projects reduced by 0.5% year on year, and investment in mine and calendering process increased by 17.9% and 41.7% respectively. It's estimated the overall operational environment next year will be better than this year. With the accelerated investment in infrastructure, planning of national strategic emerging industry listed in the "12th Five-Year Plan" and implementation of the "energy saving products for people" project, demands for nonferrous metal, especially those refined and deep processing products, will further increase. Stimulated by the monetary easing policy, price of nonferrous metal on the international market will continue the vibration pattern, but the average price per year might be better than this year, and the difficult operation of enterprises will be improved. But a number of factors such as the exit of "household appliances in countryside" policy, excess productivity of some middle and low end products, pressure from eliminating outdated productivity and the uncertainty in international financial market will restrict the development of nonferrous metal industry next year. The operation of nonferrous metal industry will be basically stable next year, and the strength in structural adjustment will be further enhanced.

The building materials industry has shown a trend of stable restoration. The added value in building materials industry increased by 11.6% between January and November, 8.5 percentage points lower year on year. According to the statistics of the Building Materials Federation, the national production of cement was 2.03 billion ton, an increase of 6.7% year on year, plate glass 665 million ton, a decline of 6.1% year on year. Product structure is optimized, and low energy consumption products grows at a fast rate. The production of drain-pipe, pressure pipe and pole for commercial concrete and cement concrete increased by 14%, 59.6%, 14.4% and 17.6% respectively, production of reinforced glass, laminated glass and hollow glass increased by 12.8%, 8.1% and 41.9% respectively, glass fiber yarn 10.7%. Low energy consumption products accounted almost half of the contribution rate to the growth of building materials industry. The decline of profit narrows. The profit achieved by building materials industry declined by 5.2% between January and October, 3 profit margins lower than from January to September. The price of cement and plate glass showed an obvious sign of stable restoration. The factory price of cement produced by major building materials enterprises was 348 yuan/ton in November, 1.1 yuan/ton higher than October, a decline of 10% year on year; the factory price of plate glass was 64.3 yuan/box, 0.6 yuan/box higher than October, an increase for four consecutive months. Excess productivity is obvious. After the explosive development of building materials industry years ago, traditional industries engaged in cement and plate glass are facing increasing pressure from excess productivity and unmatched production and marketing. The task of getting rid of large inventory and excess productivity remains arduous. If there is no obvious improvement in real estate market, the production growth of building materials industry will be kept at a moderate growth rate, probably equivalent to this year.

Petrochemical industry will show a trend of slow stability, but the serious excess productivity and fluctuation of crude oil on international market will affect the stable operation of the industry. The growth of petrochemical industry continued to drop at the first half of this year. The industrial economy showed a bottom-touching stable trend since the third quarter. The added value in petrochemical industry increased by 8.1% between January and November, 2 percentage points lower than the same period of last year, among which the added value in chemical industry increased by 12% year on year. Among the primary products, the production of ethylene, caustic soda and sodium carbonate increased by -2.6%, 4.1% and 5.5%, 10, 11.4 and 7.4 percentage points lower than the same period of last year. Industrial structure is further optimized. The production value of synthetic materials and organic chemical raw materials accounted for 22% and 16.5% respectively in the whole chemical industry, 1.7 and 1.2 percentage points higher year on year; the production of all-steel radial tire was 640 million, accounting for 87.4% in the total. Investment in technology-intensive industry increases substantially. The investment in chemical industry increased by 33% around in the whole year, among which the investment in synthetic materials increased by nearly 60%, chemical raw materials exceeding 60%, and other basic chemical materials nearly 70%. The decline of enterprise's profit narrows. The total profit achieved by petrochemical industry reduced by 8.7% year on year between January and October, a decrease for three consecutive months. Excess productivity is obvious. Judging from the average utilization of equipment in September this year, methyl alcohol accounted 55%, caustic soda 75%, sodium carbonate 72%, and polyvinyl chloride 60%. Some enterprises were suffering loss in spite of the operation, and larger loss if they stop the operation. The market demand will rebound next year, but there are still many uncertain factors. It is estimated real estate, construction, auto and light industry will rebound moderately, which will increase the demand for petrochemical products including refined oil, synthetic materials and coatings. But due to the weak international demand, high production cost and excess productivity, the economic operation of petrochemical industry is hard to achieve significant improvement. Meanwhile, the pressure from energy saving and emission reduction is growing stronger, and the price fluctuation of international bulk commodity, represented by crude oil, brings great uncertainty to the operation of petrochemical industry which highly depends on imported resources. Recently, China issued the supportive policies for the development and exploitation of shale gas. In future, shale gas and oil will become the key fields for industrial investment and strengthen the investment in natural gas pipeline network and gas storage. It is estimated petrochemical industry will maintain a slow and stable trend next year.

Equipment manufacturing industry. Influenced by the slow growth of fixed assets investment and continuous decline of export, the overall operation of equipment manufacturing industry has not been released from the downward pressure. According to the data from the State Statistics Bureau, the added value in equipment manufacturing industry increased by 8.2% between January and November, obviously lower than all above-scale industries, 7.2 percentage points lower than the same period of last year, among which the added values in the first, second and third quarter increased by 9.1%, 9.1% and 7.6% respectively year on year, 6.5% and 7.4% in October and November. Orders reduce in large numbers. The new orders in equipment manufacturing industry reduce in large numbers due to the slow growth of market demand. According to the order received by major enterprises with whom the Machinery Federation keeps contact, the number of new orders only increased by 6% year on year for the whole of last year. And this, the number has shown a trend of negative growth, among which the order for engineering machinery, ship, machine tool, camion and power generating equipment reduced most substantially. Export growth reduces substantially. The export delivery value in equipment manufacturing industry increased only 1.3% year on year between January and November, 20.2 percentage points lower than the same period of last year, among which the value increased by 6.7% and 3% in the first and second quarter, and decreased by 1.9% in the third. The value has been falling for five consecutive months since July, and decreased by 1.8% in November. Profits slip. Equipment manufacturing industry achieved a profit of 905.3 billion yuan between January and October, an increase of 2.1% year on year (20.8% in 2011), among which the profits from auto industry increased by 8%, and the profits from other industries decreased by 1.4% after excluding the profit from auto industry; the profit margin from principal business revenue was 6.31%, 0.4 percentage points lower year on year; the percentage of loss was 14.7%, and the amount of loss was 77.5 billion yuan, an increase of 71.7% year on year. With opportunity and challenge together, the prospect is not so promising. The next year is vital for the implementation of the upgrade planning of industrial transition and development program of strategic emerging industry, a promising year for high-end equipment manufacturing industry to have important opportunity. Meanwhile, acceleration of investment in infrastructure such as railway and water conservancy will drive the growth of some industries like engineering machinery, and there will be a certain degree of space for the growth of the EHV power transmission and transformation in hydroelectric equipment and electric transmission and transformation equipment. But in a general view, the improvement in market demand and export is not obvious. Meanwhile, China's equipment manufacturing industry is facing a number of problems such as excess productivity of middle and low end products and weak capacity for the R & D of high end products and industrialization, resulting in intensified competition of industrial homogenization. In addition, the reindustrialization strategy implemented by economic entities including America is also likely to threaten the export of our mechanical and electrical products. The overall operation of equipment manufacturing industry next year is expected to be better than this year, with higher growth of added value.

Auto industry will maintain small growth. The production and sales in auto industry has overcome the negative influence such as the exit of market stimulation policy since last year, and turned around the negative growth at the beginning of the year, showing a trend of stable growth. According the statistics of Automobile Association, the accumulated production and sales of national auto was 17.48 million and 17.49 respectively, an increase of 4.5% and 4% year on year, among which the production and sales of passenger vehicle increased by 7.3% and 7.1%, and commercial vehicle reduced by 5.7% and 6.8%. The self-owned brand passenger vehicle has a stable growth, and its share in domestic market reduces. There were 5.8 million self-owned brand passenger vehicles sold between January and November, an increase of 4.9% year on year, accounting for 41.3% in the market, 0.8 passenger vehicles lower year on year, among which the sales of car were 2.7 million, increasing by 1.5% year on year, accounting for 27.8% in the market, 1.3 percentage points year on year. The share of low emission car reduces. The sales of cars with emission under 1.6 L were 6.9 million between January and November, an increase of 6.1% year on year, accounting for 70.8% in the sales of cars, 0.1 percentage point year on year. Export kept a rapid growth, and the export amount of single car was less than one third of the import. According the statistics of Automobile Association, the export of auto was 965,000 between January and November, an increase of 27.2% year on year and expected to exceed 1 million in the whole year. In addition, the customs data showed that the accumulated import of auto was 970,000 between January and October, amount of import 41 billion USD, an increase of 17.9% and 20.3% respectively; the accumulated export of vehicle was 851,000, amount of export 11.4 billion USD, an increase of 21% and 28.1%. The unit price of exported vehicle was only 31.7% of imported vehicle. Industrial concentration improves. The gross sales of auto enterprises listed on the top 10 was 15.33 million between January and November, accounting for 87.6% in the total, 0.5 percentage points higher than the same period of last year. New energy cars are expected to the new growth point, but the whole auto industry is facing the bottleneck of resources and environment. The development program for new energy auto industry and policy of domestic demand expansion will take effect gradually, and the continuous upgrade of consumption structure and stable growth of household income level will continue to drive the demand for cars, providing a good foundation for the long-term and stable development of auto industry. But, after the 10 years of high-speed development of more than 25% of annual production and sales, auto industry is stepping into a new adjustment circle. Meanwhile, out of the consideration of traffic control, cities like Beijing and Guangzhou already have put restriction on auto purchase, which will also limit the development of auto industry.

The global ship market remains sluggish, and ship industry is during a profound adjustment circle. Shipping market remains sluggish under the slow growth of global economy and trade. The three major indicators for shipbuilding are continuing to decline with dropping economic benefit and worsening operation. Production reduces in large numbers, and industrial operation is worsening. According to the statistics of Shipping Federation, the national shipbuilding completed 50.55 million of deadweight tons between January and November, a decline of 18.2% year on year. The total profits achieved by major shipbuilding building industries under the monitoring of CANSI reduced by 55.6% year on year between January and October. The market depression accelerates, and handling orders reduce substantially. New orders for ships completed 17.04 million of deadweight tons between January and November, among which the export orders completed 13.34 million of deadweight tons, an increase of 49.4% and 46.9% respectively; up to the end of November, handling orders completed 113.35 million of deadweight tons, among which the export orders completed 93.85 million of deadweight tons, a decline of 30.3% and 31.3%. Considering that large number of order is in the hands of few major shipbuilding factories, most medium-and-small sized are facing the problem of insufficient operating rate. Meanwhile, the reduction of global order numbers hit the new lowest point. By the end of November, the global handling ship orders reduced to 4,721, with 270 million of deadweight tons, a decline of 25% compared with the end of last year. Ship delivery becomes increasingly difficult due to the continuous weakness of shipping market. According to the statistics, as of the end of 2011, China's handling ship orders completed 154.45 million of deadweight tons, among which the orders deliverable in 2012 were 89.62 million of deadweight tons, with only 50.55 million of deadweight tons delivered at the end of November. It's estimated the delivery in the whole year is less than 60 million of deadweight tons. There were about 30 million of deadweight tons cancelled or delayed. Under a large environment of slow economic growth across the globe, the production and operation of China's shipbuilding industry will face severer situation next year due to the influence from continuous weakness in international shipping market and the development circle of shipbuilding industry.

Consumer goods industry. Since this year, affected by factors such as the collapse of export and the rise of cost, the growth of consumer goods has slowed significantly in the second quarter. From the prospect of the general operation situation, supported by the steady growth of domestic demand, there was a slow but stable growth momentum after the second quarter. According to the estimate by the State Statistics Bureau, the added value in consumer goods industry increased by 11% year on year between January and November, 3.1 percentage points lower than the same period of last year, among which the added value in the first, second and third quarter increased by 14.3%, 10.2% and 10% respectively, and 10% in October and November. The growth tends to be stable, and the export growth has begun to rebound. The export delivery value achieved by consumer goods industry increased by 6.8% year on year between January and November, 9.1 percentage points lower than the same period of last year, increasing by 6.3%, 5.7%, and 7% respectively in the first, second, and third quarter, and 7.2% and 9.4% in October and November. The stable growth will support the consumer goods industry consistently and keep the promising momentum. Focusing on the expansion of domestic demand, especially the demand for consumption, is still the basic orientation of the macro control next year. Under a series of macro controls, such as the continuous perfection of promoting the consuming policies and the efforts to improve the residents’ income level, the contribution of consumption to industrial growth will be advanced. However, considering the continuous complicatedness of global economic situation next year, light textile industry, which highly depends on export, will still face a severe external environment, and the situation of export will still have difficulties in making some obvious changes. From a comprehensive prospect, the consumer goods industry growth next year will be probably the same as this year.

The overall situation of light industry is stable. The added value in light industry increased by 11.1% between January and November this year, 1.1 percentage points higher than all above-scale industries, but 4 percentage points lower than the same period of last year, among which the added value in August, September, October and November increased by 9.9%, 9.7%, 9.6% and 10% respectively. The operation of light industry tends to be stable gradually. The growth in food industry is basically stable, but other industries suffer substantial reduction. In light industry, the proportion of the accumulated added values in agricultural side food processing, food and beverage industry was close to 47% in that of the above-scale light industry, an increase of 13.2% year on year, 2.1 percentage points faster than the growth of light industry; after the exclusion of food industry, other light industries increased by 9.3% in total. Export growth increases. The export delivery value increased by 8.5%, 7.3 percentage points lower year on year, 7.3%, 8.5% and 9.4% in the first, second and third quarter respectively, and 7.9% and 11.1% in October and November. Policy supporting medium-and-small sized enterprises shows effect. The interest expense of above-scale medium-and-small sized enterprises in light industry increased by 22% and 28.3% between January and October, 21 percentage points lower than the first quarter, 9.3 and 12.3 percentage points lower than the first half year. Profits keep rapid growth. Light industry achieved a profit of 798.1 billion yuan between January and October, an increase of 17.9% year on year; profit margin of principal business was 5.66%, 0.12 percentage points higher year on year; percentage of loss for enterprise was 12.1%, and amount of loss increased by 31.6% year on year. Consumption environment remains to be further improved. The policy and market environment for light industry will be further improved under the circumstance of stable restoration of domestic economy and the gradual effect from stable growth policy implemented by the country. Meanwhile, the long-term low cost development mode is challenged by the rising labor cost and pressure from the appreciation of exchange rate of RMB, and a number of highlighted problems such as insufficient demand, trade barrier, limited creativity in technology and lack of self-owned brand, as well as how to ensure the safety of food. Because the consumption stimulation policy carried out at the earlier time released consumption capacity in advance, a boundary decreasing effect for the new domestic demand expansion policy may arise. It is estimated the production growth of light industry will keep basic stability.

Textile industry still faces severe situation. Affected by the sluggish export, textile industry has a lower and lower growth by quarters. The added value in textile industry increased by 10.5% between January and November, an increase equivalent to the same period of last year, among which the added value in the first, second and third quarter increased by 13.1%, 10% and 9% respectively, and 10.2% and 9.6% in October and November. Investment growth falls. Investment intensity in central region is higher than other regions. The investment of textile industry in fixed assets was 705.7 billion yuan between January and November, an increase of 15.7% year on year, 19 percentage points lower year on year. The investment in central region increased 16.9%. Profits slip significantly. The profits achieved by textile industry increased by 2.1% between January and October, 1.7 percentage points higher than from January to September, but 26.9 percentage points lower than the same period of last year; profit margin from principal business was 4.55%, 0.34 percentage points lower year on year; percentage of loss was 15.7%, and amount of loss increased by 62.7%. The profits achieved by chemical fiber manufacturing declined by 45.7% year on year, profit margin from principal business was 2.48%, and percentage of loss increased by 96.5% year on year. The discrepancy in price of cotton at home and abroad has kept growing larger and larger since the four quarter of last year, seriously impairing the competitiveness of export of cotton products. According to the monitoring data from market, the price of 328 cotton was 18,788 yuan/ton on November 16, 5,672 yuan/ton higher than the cotton price after 1% discounted international customs (13,116 yuan/ton). The continuous widening of cotton price at home and abroad severely weakens the international competitiveness of our cotton textile industrial chain. The export of our cotton textile products and clothes only increased by 1.2% year on year, 15.1 percentage points lower than the same period of last. International market shrinks, and the export situation is grim. Judging from the main export market of China's textile clothes, the total volume of textile clothes imported by America across the world declined by 1.1% year on year in the first three quarters, EU declined by 6.3%, and Japan increased only by 1% year on year (13.7 percentage points lower year on year). Influenced by the insufficient demand and rising cost in international market, China's share of textile clothes imported from EU and Japan was 40.4% and 72.7% respectively in the first three quarters, 0.8 and 0.2 percentage point lower year on year. The export delivery value in textile industry increased only by 2.4% between January and November, 13.3 percentage points lower year on year. According to the statistics from the customs, the export amount of China's textile clothes was 230.8 billion between January and November, increasing by only 2.1% year on year, a negative growth actually after excluding price factor (export price increased by 3.4% year on year in the first 10 months, and export of textile clothes declined by 0.9% after excluding price factor). Weak export demand, rising cost of comprehensive cost and decreasing traditional comparative advantage will continue to affect the operation of textile industry. Despite of the basically stable production of textile industry, there is obvious shrinkage of export and large decrease of economic benefit. Meanwhile, a number of factors such as rising cost of production elements, pressure from appreciation of RMB exchange rate, international trade barrier and continuous widening of price difference at home and abroad will continue to impede the development of textile industry. So, it's almost unlikely to expect it to have more rapid growth than this year.

Electronics manufacturing. China's electronics manufacturing has a high foreign dependency, whose operation is closely related to international situation. The weakness in export resulted an obvious falling of the growth of electronics manufacturing since this year. In spite of the increased growth driven by restored export in the four quarter, uncertainty remains huge. The added value in electronics manufacturing increased by 11.6% between January and November, 4.3 percentage points lower year on year, among which the added value in August, September, October and November increased by 9.9%, 10%, 10.1% and 12.6% respectively. The growth of electronics manufacturing accelerated month by month. Export regains growth. The export delivery value increased by 11.6% between January and November, 3.3 percentage points lower than the same period of last year, among which the value in the first, second and third quarter increased by 8.6%, 13.6% and 6.2% respectively, and rose to 23.2% in November after a strong restoration in August. Profitability turns better, but profit margin remains low. The profits achieved by electronics manufacturing increased by 10% between January and October, 4.3 percentage points higher than the first three quarters; the profit margin from principal business was only 3.1%, 2.36 percentage points lower than all above-scale industrial enterprises, and the percentage of loss was 24.7%. The international economic situation remains complicated next year, and the restoration of world economy lacks driving power. China's electronics manufacturing, which is always at the middle and lower end of industrial chain, still faces a severe environment in the increasingly intensified market competition.

IV. “Stable growth, structure adjustment, pattern transition and efficiency increase” will be the primary task for the economic operation in industry and communications in 2013.

Next year is a starting year of fully implementing the guiding principles of the Eighteenth National Congress of the CPC, a crucial year of carrying out the “12th-Year Plan”, and a significant year of laying a solid foundation for building moderately prosperous society. It is necessary to fully implement the guiding principles of the Eighteenth National Congress of the CPC and of the Central Economic Work Conference, thoroughly apply the Scientific Outlook on Development, maintain the steady advancing working pace, adhered to the new path of industrialization, advancing IT application, urbanization and agricultural modernization with distinctive Chinese features, conclude a new pattern of economic growth, accelerate the process of industrial transformation and upgrading, establishing a modern industrial system, promoting a deep combination of industrialization and IT application, attach more importance to the power of creativity in science and technology, and a balanced advancement in enterprise of all scales, better the environment for enterprises, enhance the quality and benefit of development, promote sustainable and healthy development of the industrial and communication sectors through transformation and upgrading.

i Take supporting actions in substantial economy, to maintain a steady growth. Based on the continuity and stability of macroscopic policy and the pertinence, effectiveness and foresight of regulation, actions should be taken and better environment should be provided, to support the substantial economy. It is of great importance to renovate traditional industries, cultivate emerging industries, and support the industries of producer services. The key point in terms of structural adjustment is to solve the over capacity problem: by expanding domestic demand, a part of the over capacity can be absorbed at home; by renovating the transnational business of enterprises, a part of the over capacity can be transformed abroad; by rebuilding the industrial structure like merger and reshuffle of enterprises, a part of the over capacity can be integrated; by achieving a forceful supervision of the market admission standard about environment protection, security and energy consumption, some inferior over capacity can be replaced. It is significant to support the enterprises applying new technologies, establish a excellent long term working mechanism for technology renovation, and produce a pleasant social environment for the technology renovation of the enterprises. More energy should be afforded in equipment manufacturing industry; attention should be paid to carrying out the “strengthening base project;” related infrastructure facilities should be improved as well.

ii Implement the strategy of innovation-driven development, to enhance the core competence in industries. We ought to highlight the importance to the creativity of enterprises, absorb international newly achievements and resources, and accelerate the breakthrough process of technology in some crucial fields. We should try to utilize marketing instruments and tools to promote structural adjustment, maintain the guiding role of current industrial policy, put more energy into crucial fields to promote independent innovation, establish creative development project, and support the research and development in high-end equipment. According to the demands of crucial fields, we should positively develop strategic emerging industries and outstanding manufacturing industries, focus on every steps especially in research, develop, brand and marketing, as well as crucial technology creativity, high-tech equipment manufacturing business, raw material processing and production, product-innovating business mode, so that we can shape international core competence in crucial fields and find new sources for economic growth.

iii Promote a deep combination of industrialization and IT application, to strengthen the supporting and leading effects from the integration of IT application. We should establish forceful policy to solve the problems in terms of infrastructural facilities, IT resources utilization and combining IT with the economic growth and social development; accelerate the pace of establishing national brand-new IT infrastructural facilities, and take actions to develop modern IT industry. We should also strengthen the planning and coordination as well as top level design of IT application, establish perfect information security system, and promote a widespread IT application in all walks of life. We should carry out projects for a deep combination of industrialization and IT application, especially in crucial fields, and renovate the traditional industry in virtue of IT application.

iv Improve the environment for the development of small and medium-sized enterprises and their vitality and internal motivation. We should continue to implement the structural tax reduction policy to expand the benefits for enterprises, especially for those small and medium-sized enterprises by expanding taxable income reduction conditions and quantities. We can establish supporting policy by helping the small and medium-sized enterprises in the form of government procurement, make research on new policy especially about lightening the stress of small and medium-sized enterprises in social insurance payment. We should adjust and better the tax structure in consumption, expand domestic demands, lighten the tax stress of enterprises. We can reduce tax in a certain period for some legal enterprises in trouble. We should relax the restrictions of market admission to financial enterprises, implement the policy of establishing rural banks and shareholding financial institutes, and realize multi-channel finance, to create a better environment for substantial economy as well as small and medium-sized enterprises.
 

 
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